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分析水文气象要素的长期变化趋势,对于理解气候变化和人类活动对水文过程的影响起着重要的指导和启示作用。本文采用Mann-Kendall非参数检验方法对黑河中上游分布均匀的8个气象站点5个气象要素的长期变化趋势进行分析。结果表明:各个站点的多年年平均气温、日最高气温及日最低气温均呈现显著的上升趋势;对于多年年降水量序列,只有托勒站在0.1显著性水平下呈现增加趋势,其余站点年降水量序列的增加或减少趋势不显著;对于多年年日照时数,只有山丹站在0.05的显著性水平下呈减少趋势。这些气象要素的变化是气候变暖、各种尺度天气系统、局地水循环、人类活动等多种因素共同作用和影响的结果。
Analysis of long-term trends in hydrological and meteorological elements plays an important guiding and enlightenment role in understanding the impacts of climate change and human activities on hydrological processes. This paper uses Mann-Kendall nonparametric test method to analyze the long-term trend of five meteorological elements in 8 meteorological stations distributed evenly in the middle and upper reaches of the Heihe River. The results show that the annual mean temperature, daily maximum air temperature and daily minimum air temperature at all stations show a significant upward trend. For the multi-year annual precipitation series, only the Toller Station shows an increasing trend at 0.1 significant level, The increase or decrease trend of quantity sequence was not significant. For the annual sunshine hours, only Shandan showed a decreasing trend at 0.05 significance level. The changes of these meteorological elements are the result of the interaction and influence of many factors such as climate warming, various scales of weather systems, local water cycle and human activities.