论文部分内容阅读
在经历了2009年不断上冲历史新高的强势行情之后,2010年国内鱼粉价格走出了“先扬后抑”的振荡调整行情。从2010年我国鱼粉供应情况来看,秘鲁鱼粉进口量逐渐恢复到正常水平,但智利鱼粉进口量却大幅下降,同时我国鱼粉进口“虹吸效应”依然显著,而国产鱼粉产量形势同比并未发生明显变化;从2010年我国鱼粉消费市场来看,受年初高价体系影响,2010年我国鱼粉消费同比显著下降,尤其是反常天气严重制约了水产料消费,但猪料对鱼粉消费形势相对好于预期。所以,2010年国内鱼粉市场在供需心态博弈的影响下逐步下调至合理水平。不过,在2010年年底,由于秘鲁中北部持续禁捕,使得国内外鱼粉市场“由熊转牛”。步入2011年,国内鱼粉价格是否有望延续强势行情?本文将就此问题作初步讨论。
After experiencing a strong market of continuous record highs in 2009, the domestic fishmeal price in 2010 stepped out of the market of oscillation adjustment of “Xiangyanghouyi”. From 2010, China’s fishmeal supply situation, the Peruvian fish meal imports gradually returned to normal levels, but the Chilean fish meal imports dropped significantly, while China’s imports of fish meal “siphon effect ” is still significant, while the domestic fish meal production situation year-on-year In 2010, the consumption of fishmeal in China dropped significantly as compared with the same period of last year. In particular, abnormal weather severely restricted the consumption of aquatic products, but the consumption of fishmeal was relatively better than that of pigmeal expected. Therefore, in 2010 the domestic fishmeal market gradually lowered to a reasonable level under the influence of the psychology of supply and demand mentality. However, at the end of 2010, as a result of the continuous banning in central and northern Peru, the fishmeal market at home and abroad has shifted from “bears to bears”. Into 2011, domestic fishmeal prices are expected to continue the strong market? This article will make a preliminary discussion on this issue.