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以艾比湖流域精河县为研究区,利用研究区内社会经济统计资料,对其2002-2012年11年间农田生态系统服务价值进行了定量评价,并对其影响因子进行多元回归分析。研究结果表明:1精河县农田生态系统总服务价值从2002年的5.12亿元逐年增加到2012年的34.98亿元,并且表现出明显的阶段性(2002-2007、2007-2009和2009-2012年),三阶段年均增长分别为0.22、2.75、5.08亿元。2农田生态系统基本服务价值的增长也相应表现为3个阶段,且三阶段年均增长分别为0.36、2.87、5.20亿元;使用化肥使农田生态系统受到环境污染而损失的价值也越来越大,从2002到2012年,年均增加0.04亿元;农业用水量的不断增大,使得水资源损耗的价值也在增长,从2002到2012年,平均每年增加0.11亿元。3回归分析结果表明精河县农田生态系统服务价值的变化受精河县第一产业投资、农业机械总动力、农业用电量、有效灌溉面积和地表水平均径流量等多种因素的影响。
Taking Jinghe County of Aibi Lake Basin as the research area, this paper made a quantitative assessment of the service value of agro-ecosystem in the 11-year period from 2002 to 2012 by using the socio-economic statistics of the study area and carried out multiple regression analysis on its impact factors. The results showed that: 1 The total service value of farmland ecosystem in Jinghe County increased from 512 million yuan in 2002 to 3.498 billion yuan in 2012, and showed obvious stage (2002-2007, 2007-2009 and 2009-2012 Year), the average annual growth of the three stages were 0.22,275.5508 billion yuan. 2 The growth of basic service value of farmland ecosystem also showed three stages correspondingly, with an average annual growth rate of 0.36287 billion yuan and 2.8775 billion yuan respectively in the three phases. The value of using chemical fertilizers to make farmland ecosystems suffer from environmental pollution is also increasing Large, from 2002 to 2012, an average annual increase of 0.04 billion yuan; increasing agricultural water use, making the value of water loss is also growing from 2002 to 2012, an average annual increase of 11 million yuan. 3 Regression analysis shows that the changes of farmland ecosystem service value in Jinghe County are influenced by many factors such as the investment in primary industry in Jinghe County, the total agricultural machinery power, agricultural electricity consumption, effective irrigated area and surface runoff of surface water.