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虽然国内学者对农业税废除促进农村工业发展这一结论深为其然,但鲜有深入研究政策效力的趋势波动,仅仅将其长期递减归结为时效因素,而对内在路径研究也莫衷一是,缺乏系统整合。通过对已有研究中作用机理的系统梳理,基于安徽省2000—2014年县域面板数据,运用面板数据回归对这一效应进行实证检验。结果表明,这一政策的增长效应和长期递减趋势与理论预期相符,但短期表现出波动趋势,在时效衰减说基础上提出政策交互效应说,用城镇化发展的外部性解释趋势差异,城镇化发展推动了城乡工业联动发展和非城镇化转移下的要素结构优化,在短期内表现为政策效应增强,进而根据上述结论提出相应政策建议。
Although the domestic scholars have absolved the conclusion that agricultural tax should be abolished to promote the development of rural industry, the trend of studying the effect of policy is seldom studied. Only the long-term and the declining trend are attributed to the aging factor. However, there is also a lack of systematic study on the internal path . Based on the systematic combing of the mechanism of action in the existing research, this paper empirically tests this effect by panel data regression based on the county panel data from 2000 to 2014 in Anhui Province. The results show that the growth effect and the long-term declining trend of this policy are consistent with the theoretical expectation, but the trend of volatility is short-term, the policy interaction effect is put forward on the basis of the time-dependent decay theory, the trend of urbanization is explained by the externality of urbanization development, Development promotes the structural optimization of factors under the coordinated development of urban and rural industries and non-urbanization. In the short term, the policy effect is enhanced, and the corresponding policy recommendations are made based on the above conclusions.