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以2000年1月~2015年12月我国集贸市场猪肉价格月度数据为样本,运用HP滤波法研究我国猪肉价格波动的周期性特征。结果表明,2003年以来我国猪肉价格波动十分频繁,且其波动具有明显的季节性,波动周期一般为3~4年。本轮猪肉价格波动自2015年9月开始,预计在2018年上半年猪肉价格跌至波谷,2019年夏季猪肉价格将回到波峰。猪肉价格波动可以通过供给层面的完善来予以平抑,建立全国统一、完善的生猪养殖信息平台及控制猪肉进口量是预防和抑制猪肉价格剧烈波动的主要途径。
Taking the monthly data of pork price in China’s bazaars from January 2000 to December 2015 as samples, HP filter method was used to study the periodicity of pork price fluctuations in China. The results show that the price of pork in our country fluctuates very frequently since 2003, and the fluctuation of it is obviously seasonal. The fluctuation period is generally 3 ~ 4 years. This round of pork price fluctuations since September 2015, the first half of 2018 is expected to plummet pork prices, the summer of 2019 pork prices will return to the peak. The fluctuation of pork price can be suppressed through the improvement of supply level. Establishing a unified and complete information platform for pig breeding and controlling the pork import volume are the main ways to prevent and curb the violent fluctuation of pork price.