An Economic Agenda For China

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  China’s economic growth will remain stable in 2016 and shouldn’t experience severe fluctuations. That is perhaps the most important message released by the recent Central Economic Work Conference, a widely watched meeting of senior officials from December 18-21, 2015.
  2016 represents the first year of the 13th Five-Year Plan (2016-20), a crucial year for the restructuring of the Chinese economy. At the same time, economists will continue to mull over how to get used to the “new normal” of slower growth. Against this backdrop, the conference, which aimed to chart the course for China’s economic development this year, has sent out three messages.
  First, maintaining stable growth will be the main target of the Chinese Government on the economic front, since slowed growth rates last year spurred wide concerns. Some Western analysts even predicted the collapse of the Chinese economy, the world’s second largest. Under such circumstances, the Chinese Government should prioritize stability by using two methods, the first of which should be through reforms. The conference stressed that the government will take steps to increase demand and promote supply-side structural reforms. It will step up the reforms of state-owned enterprises as well as financial and taxation systems in order to improve the efficiency and quality of economic growth.
  The next step to stabilize the economy will be done by adopting secure macroeconomic policies and flexible microeconomic ones. Such policies will help stimulate enterprises and consumers. This will reduce the impact of the reforms on economic growth while boosting the economy, thereby realizing the goal of stable growth.
  The second message released by the conference is that the Chinese Government will focus on tackling the prominent problems of its economic development in 2016. Unwinding overcapacity, destocking, deleveraging, lowering operation costs and increasing effective supply are high on its agenda.
  The third message is that China’s opening up will be widened. China needs to open up even more as its economy becomes increasingly intertwined with the world economy. It will accelerate negotiations on free trade agreements (FTAs) and investment agreements in 2016 while participating in global economic governance more actively. The China-South Korea FTA and the ChinaAustralia FTA serve as viable examples.
  In addition, the unfolding of the Belt and Road Initiative and financing support from the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the Silk Road Fund will further promote development across borders.
  Hopes are high that the Chinese Government will speed up economic restructuring while simultaneously maintaining stable growth and realizing healthy and sustainable economic development.
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