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在全球价值链中,中间产品贸易是中国对外贸易的主要构成部分。2015年,中国中间品贸易在全球经济体中占据第一的位置。然而,我国中间产品贸易受到了各种因素的影响和挑战,不利于我国由贸易大国向贸易强国转变。本文首先分析中国中间产品贸易总体情况;然后,运用灰色关联分析法从全球角度对影响中国中间产品贸易的关键因素加以确定,研究发现:汇率、劳动力因素和贸易成本等因素与中国中间产品贸易的关联度高,是影响中国中间产品贸易的关键因素;最后,有针对性地提出了促进中国中间产品贸易转型升级和长远发展的策略建议。
In the global value chain, trade in intermediate products is a major part of China’s foreign trade. In 2015, China’s trade in intermediate goods took the first place in the global economy. However, the trade in intermediate products of our country is affected and challenged by various factors, which is not conducive to the transformation of our country from a trading nation to a trading power. This paper first analyzes the overall situation of China’s intermediate product trade. Then, it uses the gray relational analysis method to determine the key factors that affect the trade of China’s intermediate products from a global perspective. The study finds that factors such as exchange rate, labor force and trade cost, The high correlation is the key factor affecting the trade of China’s intermediate products. Finally, some suggestions are put forward to promote the transformation, upgrading and long-term development of China’s trade in intermediate products.