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以大兴安岭林区为例,运用异常度法及回归分析方法,研究了一定空间范围内,年际森林火灾活动中间歇起伏的高火险时段(年)现象与主要天文因素——太阳黑子活动异常的定量关系,得出了太阳黑子活动是制约区域高火险时段形成与发展的重要天文因素。太阳黑子活动极小值,当年及次年易发生高火险时段,灾情可能偏重;年过火面积与前两年9月～前一年9月太阳黑子相对数均值倒数、与前一年全年太阳黑子相对数均值倒数及前一年10月～当年3月太阳黑子相对数均值倒数成正比的结论,从定量角度揭示并建立了森林火灾灾情与太阳活动的关系,为建立森林火灾长期预测、预报理论和方法提供了新的参考依据。
Taking Daxing’anling forest area as an example, using the anomaly method and regression analysis method, we studied the intermittent ups and downs of high fire risk (year) and the main astronomical factors - the abnormal sunspot activity in the interannual forest fires within a certain spatial range Quantitative relationship, concluded that sunspot activity is an important astronomical factor restricting the formation and development of high-fire danger zone in the region. Sunspot activity minimum, current and next year prone to high fire danger period, the disaster may be overweight; the area of over-burning with the previous two years from September to September the previous year, the relative average of the sunspot countdown, the year before the year with the sun Sunspot relative number average reciprocal and from October to March of the previous year is proportional to the inverse of the relative number average sunspots conclusion, from the quantitative point of view to reveal and establish the relationship between forest fire disaster and solar activity, in order to establish long-term forest fire forecast, forecast Theories and methods provide a new reference.