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以“一带一路”国家为研究对象,提出契约质量影响产业链提升的假说。借鉴Koopman等的方法,利用1995~2011年WIOD数据库中的投入产出表数据,测算“一带一路”代表性国家分行业的出口国内增加值的比例,以契约质量表征一个国家的制度质量,运用固定效应模型和系统GMM方法进行实证研究。计量结果表明,契约质量对出口国内增加值具有显著的正向影响,与此同时,契约质量对资源密集型产业影响不显著,对劳动密集型、资本密集型和技术密集型制造业的影响依次增强。在分区域的检验中,契约质量对发达地区的出口国内增加值影响较大。据此,“一带一路”沿线国家要注重制度质量的提升,尤其是契约质量,从而在全球分工的背景下,取得产业链中的有利位置,实现由低附加值端向高附加值端的攀升。
Taking the countries along the Belt and Road as the research object, this paper puts forward the hypothesis that the quality of contract affects the promotion of the industrial chain. Using the method of Koopman et al., We use the input-output data from the WIOD database from 1995 to 2011 to calculate the proportion of the value-added of domestic exports in the representative countries in the “One Belt and One Road” and use contractual quality to characterize the quality of a country’s system , Using fixed effects model and system GMM method for empirical research. The measurement results show that the quality of contract has a significant positive impact on the value added of export while at the same time, the impact of contract quality on resource-intensive industries is insignificant, and the impact on labor-intensive, capital-intensive and technology-intensive manufacturing Enhanced. In the subregional test, the contractual quality has a greater impact on the domestic value-added of exports in the developed regions. Accordingly, the countries along the Belt and Road should pay attention to the improvement of the quality of the system, especially the contractual quality, so as to obtain a favorable position in the industrial chain in the context of global division of labor so that the low-value-added end rising.