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论文利用黑龙江省进行农作物生育期观测的24个气象台站1961—2009年逐日平均气温资料和1980—2009年玉米生育期资料,采用“5—9月的月平均气温和的距平”与“黑龙江省玉米低温冷害综合指标体系”对黑龙江省1961年以来低温冷害危险性进行了评估;以黑龙江省75个县的玉米种植面积为指标对暴露性进行了评估;以玉米单产为基础进行了灾损敏感性评估;最终建立了黑龙江省玉米低温冷害风险综合评估模型。根据模型,把黑龙江省划分为高、次高、中等、次低、低等5个风险区,大、小兴安岭、南部山区为高或次高风险区,松嫩平原北部处于次高风险区,三江平原东部为低风险区。该风险评估模型有助于提升黑龙江省低温冷害定量评估能力,同时对其它农业气象灾害风险评估模型的建立可以起到借鉴和参考作用。
Based on the daily average temperature data of 24 meteorological stations from 1961 to 2009 and the growth period of maize from 1980 to 2009 in Heilongjiang Province, the paper uses the “average monthly mean temperature anomaly from May to September” “Comprehensive index system of low temperature and chilling injury of maize in Heilongjiang Province ” evaluated the danger of cold damage in low temperature in Heilongjiang province since 1961; evaluated the cornland exposure in 75 counties of Heilongjiang Province; based on yield per unit of corn Conducted a disaster susceptibility assessment; finally established a comprehensive risk assessment model of maize chilling injury in Heilongjiang Province. According to the model, Heilongjiang Province is divided into five risk zones of high, second highest, medium, second lowest and lowest level. The Greater and Xiaoxing’an Mountains and the southern mountainous areas are the high or second highest risk areas. The northern part of the Songnen Plain is in the second highest risk area. Plain east of the low-risk area. The risk assessment model can help to improve the quantitative assessment ability of cold damage in Heilongjiang Province. At the same time, it can be used as a reference for the establishment of other agrometeorological disaster risk assessment models.