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为降低官方辟谣信息缺位情况下谣言传播带来的负面影响,考虑公众辟谣及反馈机制,建立谣言传播模型及平均场方程。对方程进行数学分析,利用四阶龙格-库塔法求解方程,确定谣言传播的临界点。以系统中参数表示公众批判意识、公众辟谣能力、辟谣信息反馈机制作用强度、谣言辨识重要性等影响因子,以谣言传播激烈程度和负面影响范围表示谣言传播结果,分析单个影响因子变化对谣言传播结果的影响。结果表明,提高公众批判意识和辟谣能力、强化辟谣信息反馈机制、依据谣言辨识重要性优化谣言管理等是有效的谣言管理措施。
In order to reduce the negative impact of rumors spread in the absence of official rumor, consider the public rumor and feedback mechanism and establish a rumor propagation model and mean field equation. Mathematical analysis of the equation, the use of fourth-order Runge-Kutta method to solve the equation to determine the critical point of rumor spread. The influence factors of public critical consciousness, public ability of rumor feedback, strength of rumor information feedback mechanism and the importance of rumor identification are represented by the parameters in the system, the rumor transmission results are expressed by the extent of rumor transmission and the negative influence range, and the influence of single factor on rumor transmission Effect of the result. The results show that it is an effective rumor management measure to improve the public’s critical awareness and ability to refute the rumor and to strengthen the feedback mechanism of the rumor and to optimize the rumor management according to the importance of rumor recognition.