基于灰色马尔柯夫模型的采购预测

• 作 者: 叶浔宇
• 机 构: 北京交通大学,
• 出 处: 硅谷
• 发表日期: 2009年15期
• 关键词: GM(1 1)模型 灰色马尔柯夫模型 采购预测

以灰色GM(1,1)和马尔柯夫理论为基础,提出基于灰色马尔柯夫模型的采购预测方法。首先利用灰色模型进行短期预测,再利用马尔可夫理论进行波动状态预测,最后得到采购量期望值。实例结果表明,灰色马尔柯夫模型预测精度较高,具有较好的应用价值,能为采购预测工作提供有用依据。

Based on gray GM (1,1) and Markov theory, a forecasting method based on gray Markov model is proposed. First of all, we use gray model to forecast short-term, and then use Markov theory to forecast the volatility, and finally get the expectation of purchasing quantity. The results of the example show that the gray Markov model has higher prediction accuracy and better application value, which can provide a useful basis for the procurement forecasting.