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研究未来的发展总会遇到各种无法确定的事情。一方面,事物的变化可能异常迅猛,谁也无法预料。当四十年代确立现行国际经济秩序的基本内容时,谁也没有预见到,当日本和南朝鲜等新竞争伙伴以空前的活力进入国际市场时,现有国际经济秩序的主要支持者会迅速改变他们的立场。另一方面,事物的变化也可能是非常缓慢的,或者说没有显露出来。亚当·斯密曾经预言当时沦为殖民地的美洲、非洲和亚洲将获得经济
Study of the future development will always encounter a variety of things that can not be determined. On the one hand, changes in things may be unusually rapid, no one can predict. When the basic content of the current international economic order was established in the 1940s, no one foreseen that when new competition partners such as Japan and South Korea entered the international market with unprecedented vitality, the major supporters of the existing international economic order would change rapidly Their position. On the other hand, changes in things can also be very slow, or not revealed. Adam Smith had predicted that America, Africa and Asia, which were colonized at that time, would have gained the economy