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本文基于向量自回归模型(VAR)使用Johansen Test和Granger Causality Test分析国内大豆和豆油市场的价格传导机制。研究表明,国内大豆产业已经形成整合局面;豆油价格是大豆价格的引导因素,呈现需求拉动型价格传导特征;以江苏省为代表的港口压榨市场已经成为影响其他区域市场波动的主导区域。政府在调控大豆和豆油市场时须兼顾各市场间的联系,尤其在国产大豆价格上涨时应给予国产原料压榨企业更多支持,关税、技术壁垒等贸易手段是调控港口压榨市场大豆和豆油价格的有效政策选择。
This article uses Johansen Test and Granger Causality Test based on vector autoregressive model (VAR) to analyze the price transmission mechanism in domestic soybean and soybean oil markets. The research shows that the domestic soybean industry has formed an integrated situation. The price of soybean oil is the leading factor of soybean price and presents the demand-driven price transmission characteristic. The market of the port squeezing represented by Jiangsu Province has become the dominant area that affects the market volatility in other regions. When regulating the soybean and soybean oil markets, the government should take into account the links between the markets. In particular, the domestic raw material crushing enterprises should be given more support when the domestic soybean prices rise. Trade measures such as tariffs and technical barriers are to control the market squeezing of soybean and soybean oil prices Effective policy choices.