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射击概率是子母弹武器效能分析的重要参数，本文以攻击大（线）目标子母弹为对象，提出一种计算命中概率的简便的近似法，计算结果表明该方法计算量小，计算精度工程上可接受；本文还引出了子母弹封锁概率的概念，并作了初步分析。本文结果对子母弹武器论证与设计使用将提供有益的参考。
Shooting probability is an important parameter for the effectiveness analysis of submunition weapon. In this paper, aiming at attacking large (line) target submunition, a simple approximation method for calculating the probability of hitting is proposed. The calculation results show that the method is computationally small and the calculation accuracy is acceptable This paper also introduces the concept of sub-cartridge blocking probability, and makes a preliminary analysis. The results of this paper will provide useful references to the demonstration and design of submunition weapons.