,Adaptation Decision Support: An Application of System Dynamics Modeling in Coastal Communities

• 作 者: Daniel Lane Shima Beigzadeh Richard Moll
• 机 构: C-Change, International Community-University Research Alliance(ICURA), Ottawa, ON K1N 6N5, Canada“,”
• 出 处: 国际灾害风险科学学报（英文版）
• 发表日期: 2017年4期
• 关键词: Canada Charlottetown Climate change adaptation Coastal community resilience Coas

This research develops and applies a system dynamics (SD) model for the strategic evaluation of environmental adaptation options for coastal communities.The article defines and estimates asset-based measures for community vulnerability,resilience,and adaptive capacity with respect to the environmental,economic,social,and cultural pillars of the coastal community under threat.The SD model simulates the annual multidimensional dynamic impacts of severe coastal storms and storm surges on the community pillars under alteative adaptation strategies.The calculation of the quantitative measures provides valuable information for decision makers for evaluating the alteative strategies.The adaptation strategies are designed model results illustrated for the specific context of the coastal community of Charlottetown,Prince Edward Island,Canada.The dynamic trend of the measures and model sensitivity analyses for Charlottetown-facing increased frequency of severe storms,storm surges,and sea-level rise-provide impetus for enhanced community strategic planning for the changing coastal environment.This research is presented as part of the Inteational Community-University Research Alliance C-Change project "Managing Adaptation to Environmental Change in Coastal Communities:Canada and the Caribbean" sponsored by the Social Science and Humanities Research Council of Canada and the Inteational Development Resource Centre.