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Ten years flew like an arrow. From the Asian financial crisis in 1998 to the present post-globalfinancial-crisis period, the internationalization of RMB was started in a tough situation, but was fortunate enough to be greeted with good development.
After the Asian financial crisis, RMB with a stable value gradually became the current money of China’s neighboring countries in cross-border trade and overseas travel. However, at that time, most of Chinese people did not realize that RMB has its new meaning.
In a few years, RMB has become the hard current money in Southeast Asia and was used by many countries as the currency for foreign exchange reserves. The volume of direct RMB trade was expanded as well. The central bank of China has already signed agreements of bilateral currency exchange with many countries’ central banks. The RMB cross-border settlement business took three years to develop from 300 enterprises in four cities to all the export-oriented enterprises in China. The RMB is striding on the way of walking out of China and has embarked on the way of being an “internationalized currency”.
At the end of 2012, RMB’s ranking in the global major payment currencies improved from the 35th place in October 2010 to the 16th place. Some optimists even believe that RMB will become the “third-largest currency in the world”following the US dollar and euro 10-15 years later.
This cannot be achieved in a short while. But in the past 10 years, RMB really has earned itself a big share and voice in the international monetary system.
Prof. Guo Tianyong from the Central University of Finance and Economics said that the growing comprehensive power of China determined that the internationalization of RMB is an inevitable course. But the process of its internationalization should be “initiative and progressive”, and be combined with the improvement of domestic financial system and capital market reform.
Tan Yaling, head of the China Foreign Exchange Investment Institute, said that the process of RMB internationalization is matching the Chinese economic development pattern. “China has already possessed great economic power and the world is expecting more from RMB. Therefore, the internationalization of RMB still has a great potential.”
But Tan Yaling also pointed out that presently RMB had the price but no system. In other words, it can be used as an international settlement tool but is not given corresponding value and profits. Though the number of international settlements made with RMB is increasing but the trade is decreasing. In her opinion, the RMB internationalization should be based on long and profound consideration, instead of being in haste and simplification. Otherwise the internationalization of RMB is to be misguided and hurdled instead of being promoted.
Zhou Jingtong, a senior analyst from the International Financial Institute at the People’s Bank of China, said that the RMB internationalization is an irresistible trend as required by both the economic growth of China and the stable development of the world. It is not only an important goal of China in its 12th Five-Year Plan, but also a kind of effective catalyst for the globalization of economy and improvement of international monetary system.
According to Zhou Jingtong, the internationalization of RMB has three highlights in its process. The first one is that the liquidation system is adopted to promote the internationalization of RMB. The second feature is that the Chinese government works with enterprises and other countries to push its progress. The third one is the efforts put into the universal development of overseas RMB market.
In his opinion, the measures of promoting the internationalization of RMB in the future can lay emphasis on reducing the limitation and simplifying the examination and approval process, trying to turn RMB from valuation currency to settlement currency and reservation currency. In order to further promote the internationalization of RMB, China is advised to build “comprehensive and multilevel” cooperation with the International Monetary Fund, based on which it could enhance the bilateral swap with other countries or regions to be less dependent on the third-party currency.
Apparently, the more internationalized RMB is for the good of both China and the world. As the second largest economy in the world, China has the potential and capability to upgrade its sovereign currency - the RMB - into the internationalized RMB. Though the RMB could not be as influential as the US dollar and euro in a short while, now it is the right opportunity to internationalize the RMB and reduce the gap between it and the US dollar.