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本文以600 MW的火电机组为对象,基于机组运行经济性和环境约束的角度,选取了5个指标:发电煤耗率、厂用电率、发电综合耗水率、发电油耗和脱硫效率,利用计量经济学模型——GARCH (Generalised AutoRegressiveConditional Heteroskedasticity)模型和多元回归法(Multiple Regression Method)构成新式耦合模型,对火电厂的综合能效进行了计算分析.并同时采用VAR (Vector AutoRegressive)模型验证了所提出的耦合模型的准确性.该方法不仅能够无人工干预的评价出火电厂节能的综合水平,还可将每个指标对综合能效的影响定量化.“,”A new hybrid methodology is introduced in this paper for analysing the energy efficiency indicators of thermal power plants.The multiple regression model and the generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model are composed in this model.There are five indicators variables are employed.The examination results indicate that this new hybrid econometric analysis can not only estimate the energy efficiency indicators without manual intervention,but analyse the short-term volatility of variables.Moreover,the methodology can eliminate the disturbance of residual superposition.Furthermore,the method can provide direct information on the degree of volatility among determinants and energy efficiency indicators.The accuracy of hybrid methodology has been proved by the comparison results of vector auto-regression (VAR)model.