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文章利用1996~2006年中国工业行业的面板数据,首先从整体上估计了工业品进、出口对工业行业总体就业的影响,并分部门检验了工业品贸易的就业效应,以考察工业品进、出口对就业影响的行业差异。整体估计结果表明,工业品进口会减少对劳动力的需求,工业品出口能够促进就业。分部门估计结果表明,工业品进、出口对就业的影响存在明显的部门差异。但从长期来看,不能过分依赖出口贸易拉动就业增长,必须增加国内需求;也不能因为工业品进口暂时减少了对劳动力的需求而采取限制进口的政策,而应该在扩大进口规模的同时不断优化进口商品的结构。不同的部门要根据其资源禀赋和比较优势,采取不同的贸易和就业策略。
Based on the panel data of China’s industrial industry from 1996 to 2006, the article first estimates the impact of the import and export of industrial products on the overall employment of the industrial sector, and tests the employment effect of the industrial trade by sub-sector to examine the impact of industrial products import and export, Industry differences in the impact of exports on employment. The overall estimation shows that the import of industrial products will reduce the demand for labor and the export of industrial products will promote employment. Sub-sector estimates show that there is a clear sectoral difference in the impact of industrial imports and exports on employment. In the long run, however, it is necessary to increase domestic demand because it can not unduly rely on export trade to boost employment growth. Nor can it adopt a policy of restricting imports because industrial imports temporarily reduce the demand for labor force. Instead, it should continue to optimize its scale of imports while at the same time, Structure of imported goods. Different departments should adopt different trade and employment strategies based on their resource endowments and comparative advantages.