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美国经济近年来虽然始终保持了强劲增长势头,但增长的推动力主要是来自于以股市为主的服务业的增长,以及由于股市飙升所带来的居民消费增长。任何国家的经济增长,如果不是以本国居民的储蓄所转化的投资为基础推动,都不可能是健康的和持久的增长,而美国经济则正是处在这样一种状态。美国经济增长显现出泡沫特征80年代中期到1995年以前,美国股市的平均市盈率始终在13倍以下,因此被认为是比较正常的。但是近年来随着美国企业利润增长停滞甚至萎缩,1997年美国股市的市盈率已上升到27倍,1998年进一步上升到35倍,1999年一季度已高达38倍。1995年,美国股市收益的46%是来自于利润,54%是来自于资产溢价,而由于利润增
Although the U.S. economy has maintained its strong growth momentum in recent years, the growth drivers are mainly driven by the growth of the service sector based on the stock market and the growth of household consumption due to the soaring stock market. Economic growth in any country can not be healthy and lasting unless promoted on the basis of investments converted from the savings of its own inhabitants. It is precisely in this state that the U.S. economy is in a position to do so. US economic growth shows bubble characteristics Before the mid-1980s until 1995, the average price-earnings ratio of the U.S. stock market has always been 13 times or less, it is considered more normal. However, with the stagnating or even shrinking U.S. corporate profits in recent years, the U.S. stock market’s price-earnings ratio has risen to 27 times in 1997 and 35 times in 1998, up from 38 times in the first quarter of 1999. In 1995, 46% of the U.S. stock market gains came from profits, 54% from asset premiums, and as profits increased