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随着中国经济的周期性回落以及资产市场的调整,中国个别城市房地产价格大幅下跌并产生了个别的负资产现象。当前中国银行业在房地产行业发放的贷款绝大部分是在房地产市场快速扩张、房地产价格持续上扬的市场环境下发放的,中国银行业是否能经受这次检验,成为影响中国银行业经营状况的关键因素。值得关注的是,1997年东南亚金融危机爆发,导致香港楼市剧烈调整,当时香港个人住房贷款市场大幅波动的情况远比目前内地情况严峻得多,在东南亚金融危机的冲击下,香港的房地产市场价格由1997年至2003年连续下跌6年,跌幅达70%(从2003年至2007年,香港的房地产价格已持续上扬,升幅达127%)。尽管香港的房地产市场在金融危机的冲击下如此大幅波动,但香港银行业并没有出现先前预计的不良贷款剧增、贷款银行巨额亏损或倒闭的情况,显示香港银行体系强大的应对房地产市场调整的能力和较高的风险管理水准。
With the cyclical decline of China’s economy and the adjustment of asset markets, real estate prices in individual cities in China dropped sharply and led to some negative equity. At present, the vast majority of loans granted by the Chinese banking industry in the real estate industry are distributed in the rapidly expanding real estate market and the real estate prices continue to rise. Whether the Chinese banking industry can withstand this test has become the key to the operation of the banking industry in China factor. It is noteworthy that the outbreak of the financial crisis in Southeast Asia in 1997 caused the property market in Hong Kong to undergo a drastic readjustment. At that time, the housing stock market in Hong Kong fluctuated significantly more severely than the current situation in the Mainland. Under the impact of the financial crisis in Southeast Asia, Hong Kong’s real estate market price From 1997 to 2003, it dropped for a consecutive 6 years, a drop of 70%. (From 2003 to 2007, real estate prices in Hong Kong have continued to rise by as much as 127%.) Although the real estate market in Hong Kong fluctuated so swiftly under the impact of the financial crisis, the banking sector in Hong Kong did not experience any dramatic increase in NPLs or huge loss or collapse of lending banks. This shows that the Hong Kong banking system is strongly responsive to real estate market adjustments Ability and high level of risk management.