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为了准确及时地预测大豆菌核病的发生发展,于2004~2012年在三江平原定点、定期调查大豆田大豆菌核病的发生情况,并采用逐步回归分析和通径分析研究了大豆开花期6个气象因子及田间子囊盘个数与大豆菌核病发病率的关系,同时还建立了大豆菌核病的逐步回归预测模型。结果表明:大豆开花期间7月降雨量、7月平均气温以及7月田间子囊盘个数3个因子对大豆菌核病的发病率影响最为关键,预测模型可以提前20 d左右对大豆菌核病的发生进行中期预测,2012年预测发病率与实际发病率基本相符。
In order to predict the occurrence and development of sclerotinia in time and accurately, the occurrence of sclerotialism in soybean was regularly investigated in the Sanjiang Plain from 2004 to 2012. Six steps of flowering of soybean were studied by stepwise regression analysis and path analysis. Meteorological factors and the number of field ascochondral disk and the incidence of sclerotium in soybean, and also established a stepwise regression model of soybean scab. The results showed that the three factors influencing on the incidence of sclerotinia sclerotiorum were the most influencing factors on the incidence of sclerotium in soybean during the flowering period in July, including the rainfall in July, the average temperature in July and the number of ascosphere in July. The prediction model could predict the sclerotiorum In the mid-term prediction of the incidence in 2012 forecast the actual incidence of the basic line.