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目的探讨高温对老年人死亡风险的影响,并分析纬度对高温与死亡风险的效应修饰作用。方法收集国外高温与老年人死亡风险关系的研究,采用Meta分析方法合并效应值,再通过Meta回归模型进一步分析纬度对该关系的修饰作用。结果共纳入7篇文章,共14个城市。高温天气温度每升高1℃,老年人死亡风险增加4.3%(95%CI:2.4%~6.3%)。纬度0°~29°、30°~39°、40°~49°、≥50°时温度每升高1℃,老年人死亡风险分别增加2.5%(95%CI:2.2%~2.9%),3.1%(95%CI:2.1%~4.2%),6.0%(95%CI:-0.9%~13.3%),6.0%(95%CI:5.1%~7.0%);纬度每升高5°,老年人死亡风险增加0.2%(95%CI:0.1%~1.7%)。结论高温会增加老年人群的死亡风险,中高纬度地区在高温天气时老年人死亡风险更大。
Objective To explore the effect of high temperature on the risk of death in the elderly and to analyze the effect of latitude on the effect of high temperature and death risk. Methods To study the relationship between the high risk of death in the world and the risk of death in the elderly. Meta-analysis was used to analyze the effect of latitude on the relationship between the effects of latitude. Results included a total of 7 articles, a total of 14 cities. For each 1 ° C increase in high temperature, the risk of death in the elderly increases by 4.3% (95% CI: 2.4% -6.3%). The risk of death in the elderly increased by 2.5% (95% CI: 2.2% -2.9%) for every 1 ° C increase in temperature from 0 ° to 29 °, 30 ° to 39 °, 40 ° to 49 °, (95% CI: 2.1% -4.2%), 6.0% (95% CI: -0.9% -13.3%) and 6.0% (95% CI: 5.1% -7.0% The risk of death in the elderly increased by 0.2% (95% CI: 0.1% -1.7%). Conclusion High temperature may increase the risk of death in the elderly population, and the risk of death of the elderly is higher in the middle and high latitudes during hot weather.