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2011年,我国经济运行中发生了许多新的变化。怎样认识这些趋势性变化,是判断2012年宏观政策调控方向的基础。对经济运行趋势性变化的观察,概括起来,主要有三个趋势性变化需要引起足够重视。第一个趋势性变化:GDP增速短期回调长期回升这一轮增速回调,既是对上一轮高速增长的调整,又是下一轮高速增长的前奏。在两轮高速增长之间回调的深度和时间,内在因素取决于我国经济结构调整和发展方式转变的进度,外在因素受到全球经济复苏状况的制约和影响。
In 2011, many new changes took place in the economic operation of our country. How to recognize these changes in the trend is the basis for judging the direction of macroeconomic policy in 2012. To sum up, the observation of the trend changes in the economic operation needs to be given due attention to three major trend changes. The first trend of change: GDP growth short-term callback long-term recovery This round of growth callback, both on the previous round of rapid growth adjustment, but also the next round of rapid growth of the prelude. The depth and timing of the callback between the two rounds of rapid growth depend on the progress of the structural adjustment of our economy and the transformation of the development mode. The external factors are constrained and affected by the global economic recovery.