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为了预防和减轻未来海平面上升所造成的淹没对山东沿渤海湾地区的影响,本文采用IPCC全球平均海平面上升数据、沿渤海湾地区地壳垂直运动数据、东风港潮位数据预测2100年100 a一遇的潮位线数据,并借助数字高程模型(DEM)、地理信息系统(GIS)预测海平面上升对潮位线位置的影响。研究结果为:(1)表达2100年潮位线位置的数据;(2)与2000年相比,2100年100 a一遇风暴潮增加的淹没区的空间分布图;(3)与2000年相比,2100年100 a一遇风暴潮增加的淹没区面积和向陆推进距离。预测结果表明:(1)2100年淹没范围随海平面上升幅度增加而增加;(2)相对于2000年,2100年新增的淹没区主要分布于研究区的中西部地区;(3)新增淹没地区人口、工业、农、林、牧、渔业将受到严重影响。
In order to prevent and mitigate the impact of future submergence of sea level on Shandong along the Bohai Bay region, the IPCC global average sea level rise data, along the vertical movement data of the crust in the Gulf of Bohai Bay, Dongfeng Port tide level data forecast 100 years in 2100 (DEM) and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to predict the impact of sea level rise on the position of the tide level line. The results are as follows: (1) The data of the position of tide level line in 2100; (2) The spatial distribution of submerged area with increased storm surges in 100 years in 2100 compared with 2000; (3) Compared with 2000 In 2100, the first 100-year storm surge increased the flooded area and the distance to the land. The prediction results show that: (1) the submerged area increases with the increase of sea level in 2100; (2) Compared with 2000, the newly flooded areas in 2100 are mainly distributed in the central and western regions of the study area; (3) Inundated area population, industry, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery will be seriously affected.