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[目的]通过对江阳区乙脑趋势分析,为制定乙脑综合防治措施提供科学依据。[方法]利用江阳区历年乙脑疫情资料、气象资料、三带喙雌库蚊密度监测结果、乙脑疫苗整体接种水平、健康人群乙脑抗体保护水平调查结果对乙脑发病趋势进行综合分析与预测。[结果]江阳区的乙脑发病与去年相比将有所上升;乙脑发病数在6～30例之间;发病仍将集中在2～6岁儿童。[结论]乙脑是江阳区主要的蚊媒传染病,充分利用现有资料进行分析与预测,是控制乙脑发生与流行的有效手段之一。
[Objective] Through the analysis of trend of JE in JiangYang district, it provides a scientific basis for formulating JE comprehensive prevention and control measures. [Method] Based on the epidemiological data of JE epidemic in Jingyang area, meteorological data, the density of females in the three beaks, the overall inoculation level of JE vaccine and the protection level of JE antibody in healthy population, And forecast. [Results] The incidence of Japanese encephalitis in Jiangyang District will increase compared with last year; the incidence of Japanese encephalitis is between 6 and 30 cases; the incidence will still be concentrated in children aged 2 to 6 years. [Conclusion] JE is the main mosquito-borne infectious disease in JiangYang district. It is one of the effective means to control the occurrence and epidemic of JE by making full use of available data for analysis and prediction.