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目的了解1975-2015年青海省居民死亡率变化特征及其影响因素,为全省卫生规划的制定提供科学依据。方法用Vfp 6.0软件对青海省1975-2015年3次死因回顾性调查资料进行统计分析,计算粗死亡率、标化死亡率及年龄别死亡率,率的比较用χ2检验,用SPSS 22.0统计软件进行计算;同时用Excel 2010软件采用死亡率差别分解法计算青海省人群死亡率变化中人口因素与非人口因素所占的比例。结果近40年来青海省人群粗死亡率先降后升,其中1975-2006年下降了31.64%,2006-2015年上升了5.08%;但标化死亡率逐年下降,其中1975-2006年下降了30.77%,2006-2015年下降了21.01%。分年龄别死亡率结果表明,1975-2006年70岁以前各年龄组死亡率均下降,70岁及以后则上升;而2006-2015年,除25~岁年龄组略有上升外,各年龄组死亡率均有不同程度的下降。率的差别分解分析结果表明,1975-2006年粗死亡率的下降全部为非人口因素,人口因素反而使其上升,二者作用综合后使死亡率下降了257.24/10万;2006-2015年非人口因素同样使死亡率持续下降,但由于人口老龄化加剧,综合非人口因素后使死亡率上升了28.26/10万。结论青海省将逐步面临人口老龄化,但非人口因素(医疗保障、疾病预防控制及诊疗水平)的作用也将进一步增强,因此未来一段时间内青海省人群总死亡率将维持在目前水平或略有升高。
Objective To understand the characteristics and influencing factors of residents’ mortality in Qinghai Province from 1975 to 2015, and provide scientific basis for the formulation of the province’s health plan. Methods Vfp 6.0 software was used to statistically analyze data from three consecutive causes of death in Qinghai Province from 1975 to 2015. Crude mortality, standardized mortality and age-specific mortality were calculated. The rate was compared using χ2 test and SPSS 22.0 statistical software was used. Calculate; At the same time, use Excel 2010 software to calculate the ratio of demographic factors and non-demographic factors in mortality changes in Qinghai Province using the differential mortality method. Results In the past 40 years, the crude mortality rate in Qinghai Province decreased first and then rose, with a decrease of 31.64% from 1975 to 2006 and 5.08% from 2006 to 2015. However, the standardized mortality rate decreased year by year, with a drop of 30.77% from 1975 to 2006. , fell by 21.01% in 2006-2015. The age-specific death rate results showed that the mortality rate of all age groups before the age of 70 from 1975 to 2006 decreased, and rose from the age of 70; thereafter, from 2006 to 2015, all age groups except the 25-year age group increased slightly. Mortality has declined in varying degrees. The results of the differential decomposition analysis showed that the decline in crude mortality rate from 1975 to 2006 was all non-population factors, and the population factor actually made it rise. The combined effect of the two resulted in a reduction in mortality of 257.24 per 100 000; 2006-2015 non- The demographic factor also caused a continuous decline in the mortality rate. However, due to the aging of the population, comprehensive non-demographic factors increased the death rate by 28.26 per 100 000. Conclusion Qinghai Province will gradually face an aging population, but the role of non-population factors (medical protection, disease prevention and control, and treatment and treatment levels) will also be further enhanced. Therefore, the total mortality rate in Qinghai Province will remain at the current level or slightly over time. There is an increase.