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针对牵引变电所保护系统检修时科学依据不足的问题,根据检修需求,提出了一种新的基于两参数Weibull分布的保护设备寿命预测方法。该方法在分析保护设备历史信息以及当前运行状态的基础上,充分考虑保护设备存在隐藏故障的情况,建立继电器隐藏故障阶段性恒定失效率的Markov模型以及互感器隐藏故障诊断模型,在此基础上构建牵引变电所保护系统的寿命预测数学模型。基于某区域牵引变电所的实际运行状态和结构特点,运用该寿命预测数学模型得到牵引变电所保护系统的剩余寿命曲线,表明保护系统运行于早期故障期,对比实际运行情况,验证了该方法的正确性和有效性,为牵引变电所保护设备的状态检修提供了一定的理论依据。
Aiming at the insufficiency of scientific basis for protection system of traction substation, a new life prediction method of protection equipment based on two-parameter Weibull distribution is proposed according to maintenance requirements. Based on the analysis of historical information of protective equipment and the current running status, this method fully considers the hidden faults of protective equipment, establishes the Markov model of phase failure constant failure rate of relay hidden faults and the fault diagnosis model of transformer hidden fault. On this basis, Constructing Mathematic Model of Life Prediction for Protection System of Traction Substation. Based on the actual operation status and structure characteristics of a traction substation in a certain area, the life prediction mathematical model is used to obtain the remaining life curve of the protection system of the traction substation, which shows that the protection system operates in the early failure period. Compared with the actual operation, The correctness and effectiveness of the method provide some theoretical basis for the condition maintenance of the protection equipment in the traction substation.