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应用ArcGIS空间分析和可达性评价模型,结合SPSS、Matlab等软件,以鄱阳湖生态经济区为研究区域,选取1998年、2008年及2020规划年为时间断面,用栅格法测算交通可达性,分析可达性格局空间演变特征。根据城市质量和时间距离,构建经济联系评价模型,回归分析预测2020年城市质量。对区域内经济总量空间集聚进行分析,并根据三个时间段的最大经济联系格局演变,分析城市间经济辐射范围和城市隶属关系变化。结果发现:区域内可达性改善明显,城市间可达性差距缩小,到2020年全区可基本实现一日交流;区域内经济总量集聚明显,且处于极化状态;由于鄱阳湖湖体的阻隔,区域内形成以南昌、九江、景德镇三大经济中心地,其他为隶属城市的经济联系格局;建议发展南昌至贵溪尤其是东乡至鹰潭段的交通,使鹰潭成为区内第四个经济中心地,实现全区均衡发展。
Using ArcGIS spatial analysis and reachability evaluation model and software such as SPSS and Matlab and Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone as the research area, the planning years of 1998, 2008 and 2020 are selected as the time section, and the gridding method is used to calculate the traffic accessibility Sexuality, Analysis of Spatial Evolvement Characteristics of Reachability Patterns. According to the city quality and time distance, the economic connection evaluation model is constructed, and the regression analysis predicts the urban quality in 2020. The spatial agglomeration of economic aggregates in the region is analyzed. According to the evolution of the maximum economic linkages in the three time periods, the radiation range of the inter-city economy and the changes of urban affiliation are analyzed. The results show that the accessibility within the region is obviously improved and the accessibility gap between cities is narrowed. By the year 2020, the whole region can basically achieve one-day exchange. The economic aggregate in the region is obviously concentrated and in a polarization state. Since the Poyang Lake The formation of the region to Nanchang, Jiujiang, Jingdezhen three economic centers, the other affiliated cities under the economic structure; proposed to develop Nanchang to Guixi, especially Dongxiang Yingtan section of the traffic to Yingtan become the fourth in the region Economic center, to achieve a balanced development of the region.