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针对目前国内外所使用的港口货物吞吐量的定量预测方法所存在的问题，依据经济计量学和控制理论的原理和方法，建立了一种新的预测海运港口货物吞吐量的动态ＰＨＯＤＦ模型。该模型系统地综合了海运货物吞吐量的历史变化趋势，腹地的社会经济发展状况及政治、政策、心理和技术等各方面因素，克服了以往预测方法的不足。通过实例验证，该模型具有较高的预测精度和较好的预测效果。
Aiming at the problems existing in the quantitative forecasting methods of port cargo throughput used both at home and abroad, a new dynamic PHODF model for forecasting cargo throughput of marine ports is established based on the principles and methods of econometrics and control theory. The model systematically combines the historical changes in the throughput of seaborne cargoes, the socio-economic development in the hinterland, and various factors such as politics, policy, psychology and technology, and overcomes the shortcomings of previous forecast methods. Through the example verification, the model has higher prediction accuracy and better prediction.