流行性脑脊髓膜炎疫情中位数标准曲线预测法

• 作 者: 刘文和
• 机 构: 第二军医大学流行病学教研室 进修生
• 出 处: 第二军医大学学报
• 发表日期: 1987年05期
• 关键词: 标准曲线 血清流行病学 疫情预测 流行强度 流行趋势 预测法 可信限 总符合率 结果符合率 统计方法

流行性脑脊髓膜炎(简称“流脑”)具有周期性和发病季节性升高的流行特征,我国历史上曾有过5次全国性大流行,小流行和散发常年不断,严重危害人民健康。为了减少其危害程度,人们试图从流行病学基本理论、血清流行病学资料,病原体分型和变异资料,以及用统计方法分析疫情的流行曲线等多种途径预测其流行趋势,预先采取预防对策。本文仅就中位数标准曲线预测流脑流行强度的方法作一介绍。

Epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis (referred to as “meningitis”) has the cyclical and seasonal epidemic characteristics of the seasonal increase in China’s history there have been 5 times the national pandemic, pandemic and distribution of perennial, seriously endangering people’s health . In order to reduce their harmfulness, people try to forecast their epidemic trends from the basic theory of epidemiology, the information of serum epidemiology, the classification and variation of pathogens, and the epidemiological analysis of epidemic situation by statistical methods, and take precautionary measures . This article only describes the method of predicting the meningococcal epidemic intensity of the median standard curve.