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利用模糊故障树风险分析方法对桥梁运营期汽车燃烧事故概率进行预测。根据故障树逻辑关系构建了汽车燃烧风险因素的模糊故障树;采用模糊数表述故障树基本事件发生概率,克服了故障树底事件发生概率不易确定的困难,提出了基于模糊故障树原理的桥梁运营期汽车燃烧风险概率模型,并将其应用到武汉鹦鹉洲长江大桥运营期汽车燃烧风险分析。结果表明,武汉鹦鹉洲长江大桥发生油罐车燃烧事故的概率约为44.124年/次,在100年设计基准期内发生2.26次;小汽车发生燃烧事故的概率约为4.121年/次,在100年设计基准期内发生24.27次;客车发生燃烧事故的概率约为9.286年/次,在100年设计基准期内发生10.78次;货车发生燃烧事故的概率约为24.041年/次,在100年设计基准期内发生4.16次。研究结果可为桥梁抗火设计与防范措施提供理论决策依据。
Fuzzy fault tree risk analysis method is used to predict the probability of automobile combustion accident during bridge operation period. According to the logic relationship of fault tree, a fuzzy fault tree of vehicle combustion risk factor is constructed. The fuzzy number is used to describe the probability of occurrence of basic fault tree, which overcomes the difficulty of determining the probability of occurrence of fault tree bottom event. Based on fuzzy fault tree theory, Period vehicle combustion risk probability model and apply it to Wuhan Parrot Island Yangtze River Bridge during the operation of the car combustion risk analysis. The results show that the probability of burning a tanker truck in Wuhan Parrot Island Yangtze River Bridge is about 44.124 years, 2.26 times in the 100-year design base period, and the probability of a car burning accident is about 4.121 years at 100 24.27 times in the design base period of the year; the probability of a passenger car burning accident is about 9.286 years, 10.78 times in the 100-year design base period; the probability of a truck burning accident is about 24.04 years / time; 4.16 times during the reference period. The results can provide theoretical basis for the design of fire-resistant bridge and preventive measures.