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目的分析崇明县乳腺癌发病率和死亡率的长期变化趋势。方法利用1998—2013年崇明县户籍居民的肿瘤监测资料,运用年度变化百分比(annual percent change,APC)对崇明女性乳腺癌的发病率和死亡率的时间趋势进行分析。结果乳腺癌位居崇明县女性恶性肿瘤发病首位,1998—2013年女性乳腺癌的粗发病率为36.11/10万,标化发病率为20.69/10万;粗死亡率为11.66/10万,标化死亡率为5.77/10万。发病率持续上升,而死亡率在近10年不仅不再上升,并且呈现显著性下降趋势。55~59岁组发病率最高,85岁及以上组死亡率最高。55岁以下组标化发病率呈现显著增长趋势,而死亡率变化无统计学意义;55岁以上组标化发病率自2002年开始由原先的显著性上升转为稳定,标化死亡率在2003年后不再上升。结论崇明县女性乳腺癌发病率和死亡率相对较低,发病率上升趋势明显。随着诊疗技术提高,标化死亡率出现下降趋势。由于人口老龄化加剧,粗发病率在未来还将增高,乳腺癌将在较长时间内威胁崇明县女性健康和生命。
Objective To analyze the long-term trend of breast cancer morbidity and mortality in Chongming County. Methods According to the tumor monitoring data of household inhabitants in Chongming County from 1998 to 2013, the annual percentage change (APC) was used to analyze the time trend of the incidence and mortality of breast cancer in Chongming women. Results Breast cancer ranked the first in Chongming County. The incidence of breast cancer was 36.11 / 100 000 in 1998-2013. The standardized incidence was 20.69 / 100 000. The crude death rate was 11.66 / 100 000 The death rate was 5.77 / 100,000. Incidence rate continued to rise, while the mortality rate in the past 10 years not only no longer rise, and showed a significant downward trend. The highest incidence of 55 to 59 years old group, 85 and over the highest mortality group. The incidence of standardization of patients under the age of 55 showed a significant upward trend, while the mortality rate was not statistically significant; the standardization of incidence of over 55 years old group from 2002 to the original significant increase to stable, standardized mortality in 2003 Years later no longer rise. Conclusion The incidence and mortality of breast cancer in Chongming County are relatively low, and the incidence rate of breast cancer is obviously rising. With the improvement of diagnosis and treatment techniques, the standardization mortality rate showed a downward trend. Due to the aging of the population, the incidence of crude diseases will increase in the future. Breast cancer will threaten the health and life of women in Chongming County for a long time.