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正确的方法有助于使我们更好地理解市场运行的内在逻辑,从而降低预测失败的概率。下面我们将通过十个小故事,来讲述对研究方法的一些想法和体会。“非洲蚂蚁找家”的故事告诉我们科学研究的四个步骤。“重的物体比轻的物体下落得更快”和“光线是可以弯曲的”则说明了现代科学是形式逻辑和实证精神的结合产物,两者缺一不可。“民可使由之,不可使然之”和“下边,没有了”则论述了中国从古到今都相对缺乏实证精神和形式逻辑,从而无法产生有价值的研究。“引力与温度无关”说明了在寻找因果关系的过程中,隔离的重要性。
The right approach helps us to better understand the internal logic of market operations and thus reduce the probability of a forecast failure. Below we will be through ten stories to tell about some of the ideas and experience of research methods. The story of African Ant Finds tells us four steps in scientific research. “Heavy objects fall faster than light objects,” and “Light is bendable.” This shows that modern science is a combination of formal logic and positivism, both of which are indispensable. This article discusses that China lacks empirical evidence and formal logic from ancient to modern times and can not produce valuable research. “Gravitation has nothing to do with temperature ” explains the importance of isolation in the search for causal relationships.