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目的对现行的两种流感暴发疫情报告标准进行比较评价,为流感暴发疫情的科学防控提供理论依据。方法建立无干预易感者-潜伏期-显性/隐性感染者-移出者(susceptible-exposed-infectious/asymptomaticremoved,SEIAR)模型,在此基础上结合实际情况建立有干预模型。利用两种报告标准对疫情进行模拟干预,利用疫情持续时间、累计新发病例数、累计续发病例数、累计罹患率和罹患率降低百分比来评价干预效果。结果本起疫情的基本再生数为8.2,模型模拟结果和实际情况较为类似。在符合标准1(1周内累计新发病例数为10例)时采取干预措施流感暴发疫情的干预效果优于在符合标准2(1周内累计新发病例数为30例)时进行干预的效果。结论标准1(1周内累计新发病例数为10例)较标准2(1周内累计新发病例数为30例)更有利于流感暴发疫情的科学防控。
Objective To compare and evaluate the current two reporting standards of flu outbreaks and provide a theoretical basis for the scientific prevention and control of flu outbreaks. Methods We established a non-intervention susceptible-latent-exposed-infectious / asymptomatic migraine (SEIAR) model, and established an intervention model based on the actual situation. Two kinds of reporting standards were used to simulate the epidemic situation. The duration of the outbreak, the number of new cases accumulated, the number of cumulative cases of recurrence, the cumulative attack rate and the percentage reduction of attack rate were used to evaluate the intervention effect. Results The basic reproductive number of this outbreak was 8.2, and the model simulation results were similar to the actual situation. Interventions when out-of-standard criteria 1 (cumulative number of new cases in 10 weeks) were better than interventions for outbreaks that met criteria 2 (cumulative number of new cases within 1 week was 30) effect. Conclusion Standard 1 (cumulative number of newly diagnosed cases within 10 weeks) is more favorable for the scientific prevention and control of influenza outbreaks than standard 2 (cumulative new cases within 30 days).