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潜在产出与产出缺口对于宏观经济形势的判断和宏观经济政策的把握非常重要。本文应用结构向量自回归模型估计了1983-2007年中国的潜在产出及产出缺口,结果显示估计的产出缺口能够准确反映中国1983年以来的经济周期变化而且具有较好的稳定性。由此得出结论:(1)当前中国经济以较低的通货膨胀为代价就可以实现较高的经济增长;(2)供给冲击与需求冲击对GDP增长率具有暂时影响,而供给冲击对GDP造成了持久影响,需求冲击对GDP只产生暂时的影响。
Potential output and output gaps are important for judging the macroeconomic situation and for grasping macroeconomic policies. This paper estimates the potential output and output gap of China from 1983 to 2007 by using the structure vector autoregression model. The results show that the estimated output gap can accurately reflect the economic cycle since 1983 in China and has good stability. From this we can draw the following conclusions: (1) At present, China’s economy can achieve higher economic growth at the expense of lower inflation; (2) supply and demand shocks have a temporary impact on the growth rate of GDP, while supply shock to GDP Have had a lasting impact, and demand shocks have only a temporary impact on GDP.