科技政策变迁与全要素生产率增长——基于事件系统理论的分析

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本文基于增长核算法中的“索洛余值法”,选取1990—2019年中国由宏观经济总量统计的时间序列数据,测算全要素生产率的增长变动水平。结果表明:全要素生产率增长变动呈现波动趋势,且与同期产出水平变动趋势相似。然后利用事件系统理论,结合科技体制改革背景下政府颁布的具有重要意义的科技方针战略及相应政策实施所带来的“事件”影响进行分析,诠释了同期全要素生产率变动的成因,总结科技进步的趋势及发展要求。本文丰富了全要素生产率变动影响成因分析视角,为后续推进科技发展工作、定位改革关键领域、实现经济高质量发展的转型目标提
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