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美国次贷危机已形成全球经济危机,对山西经济发展的影响逐步加深。在外部环境和经济周期规律双重作用下,我省经济步入了本轮周期的下行通道。通过研究危机波及的幅度、深度和传导机制与影响状况,分析本次危机及国家政策走向对我省尤其是重点领域和主要工业行业的影响,我们认为明年我省经济发展面临着四个挑战和三大机遇。2009年经济社会发展目标任务将会对我省又好又快发展起到重要引导作用。本报告在研究了国内外权威机构对明年全球和我国经济发展预测的基础上,结合我省产业特色和经济运行周期性特征,对我省明年的主要指标进行了初步预测。我们认为,我省2009年一些指标增长幅度会有所下降,但出现大幅下滑的可能性不大,GDP将保持10%左右的增长速度。综合国际、国内形势特征与发展趋势,分析我省面临的挑战与机遇,我们建议:2009年我省宏观调控的基本思路是“双管齐下实现三保”:财政与金融手段双管齐下,保增长、保民生、保稳定。在此思路指导下,我们提出了用好用足国家扩大内需的政策措施、实施传统产业“限产保价”策略、实现教育文化卫生“村覆盖、乡达标、县上档”、健全财政出资的县级政策性担保体系、实施特别职业培训计划、确保优势出口产业稳定发展等八大政策措施。
The subprime mortgage crisis in the United States has created a global economic crisis and gradually deepened the impact on Shanxi’s economic development. In the external environment and the dual role of the economic cycle, the economy of our province into the downward spiral of the current cycle. By studying the magnitude, depth, conduction mechanism and impact of the crisis, analyzing the impact of this crisis and national policy direction on our province, especially key areas and major industrial sectors, we think that the economic development of our province will face four challenges next year Three major opportunities. The task of economic and social development in 2009 will play an important guiding role in the sound and rapid development of our province. Based on the study of the prediction of global and China’s economic development next year by domestic and foreign authoritative agencies and the periodic features of our province’s industrial features and economic operation, this report makes a preliminary forecast of the main indicators for next year in our province. In our opinion, the growth rate of some indicators in our province will decline in 2009, but it is unlikely that there will be a sharp decline. GDP will maintain a growth rate of about 10%. Based on the analysis of the international and domestic situation and development trend and the analysis of the challenges and opportunities our province faces, we suggest that the basic idea of macroeconomic regulation and control in our province in 2009 is to achieve “three guarantees” in a two-pronged approach: a two-pronged fiscal and financial approach to maintaining growth and ensuring Livelihood, security and stability. Under the guidance of this train of thought, we put forward policies and measures to make full use of our country’s domestic demand to expand domestic demand. We will implement the strategy of “limiting the production and selling prices” of traditional industries to achieve education, culture and hygiene, "village coverage, township compliance, We will improve the eight policy measures including the county-level policy-oriented guarantee system funded by finance, the implementation of special vocational training programs and ensuring the stable development of the advantageous export industries.