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2004年是我国经济生活中很不寻常的一年。从一个短期的角度来看,2004年是经济局部过热和宏观调控同时进行的一年,2004年也是经济增长速度逐季度回落的一年。但是,如果把视野放宽一些,2004年实际上可以视为经济短周期波动的收缩期。作者把2004年中国经济运行与中国经济十几年甚至几十年的发展历程结合起来,既见微知著,又高屋建瓴,把宏观经济运行与微观经济运营结合起来进行分析,既不至于给人隔靴挠痒之感,又不至于只见树木不见森林。在对2005年经济运行进行了深入分析之后,作者又对2005年我国经济发展中面临的问题进行了展望,做出预测。作者尤其指出,2005年政府的宏观调控政策应以中性政策为主,在实行“双稳”调控政策的具体力度与节奏上,应注意统筹兼顾,与中长期经济发展趋势、经济体制改革、产业发展导向和国内外市场环境相协调。
2004 is a very unusual year in our economic life. From a short-term point of view, 2004 is a year in which the economy is partially overheated and is undergoing macroeconomic regulation and control. In 2004, the year of economic growth has also dropped quarter by quarter. However, if we take a broader view, 2004 can actually be regarded as the contraction period of short-term economic fluctuations. The author combines the operation of China’s economy in 2004 with the course of development of more than 10 years or even decades of China’s economy. By analyzing both the macro-economic operation and the micro-economic operation, the author not only see each other well, Itchy feeling, but not only saw the trees do not see the forest. After an in-depth analysis of the economic operation in 2005, the author made a forecast on the problems facing China’s economic development in 2005 and made a prediction. In particular, the author points out that in 2005, the government’s macro-control policy should focus on the neutral policy. At the concrete intensity and pace of implementing the “bistable” regulation and control policy, the government should pay attention to making overall plans for taking all factors into balance with the medium- and long-term economic development trends, economic restructuring, Industrial development and domestic and international market environment-oriented coordination.