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为评估海洋平台应急撤离(EER)成功率,首先运用鱼骨图法定性分析影响应急撤离逃生、疏散、救援3个阶段的因素;进而建立3阶段的贝叶斯网络(BN)模型,并计算各阶段的成功率;最后对BN进行敏感性分析(SA)。结果表明:在影响3阶段因素状态未知的情况下,逃生、疏散、救援成功的概率分别为0.84,0.7和0.37,且因素状态对应急撤离成功率有较大影响;SA结果表明,疏散路线选取因素对逃生阶段的成功率的影响最大,而天气因素对疏散和救援阶段的成功率的影响最大。
In order to assess the success rate of emergency evacuation (EER) on offshore platforms, the author first used the fishbone chart to qualitatively analyze the factors influencing the three phases of emergency evacuation, evacuation and rescue. Then, a three-phase Bayesian Network (BN) model was established and calculated The success rate of each stage; Finally, the sensitivity of the BN analysis (SA). The results show that the probabilities of successful evacuation, evacuation and rescue are 0.84, 0.7 and 0.37, respectively, and the factor status has a significant impact on the success rate of emergency evacuation. The results of SA show that evacuation route selection Factors have the greatest impact on the success rate of the escape phase, while the weather factor has the greatest impact on the success rate of the evacuation and rescue phases.