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即将跨入21世纪的第三世界发展中国家,目前正经受着两股史无前例的巨大浪潮的冲击:经济现代化和政治民主化。这两股浪潮有可能推动发展中国家以超常规的高速度进入21世纪,但也有可能把它们冲垮、压垮。这里关键要看这两股浪潮是达成一种相互促进的正相关关系呢,还是互相阻碍的负相关关系。而历史经验又告诉人们,决定这两种关系抉择取向的一个重要因素,是社会是否有序和稳定。因为,只有在一个有序而稳定的社会里,才有可能把经济现代化带来的巨大物质能量转化为政治民主化的政治能量;也只有在一个有序而稳定的社会里,政治民主化产生的政治能量才会反过来加速经济的现代化。一个无序而混乱的社会将使这两股浪潮的能量在社会动乱中消耗殆尽,甚至有可能转化为负增长的能量。因此,社会稳定是目前发展中国家现代化能否顺利进行的关键因素。如何才能实现这种稳定发展呢?方法和手段很多,但研究战后西方发达国家保持社会较长期稳定发展的秘密所在,并从中吸取有益的经验和教训,无疑是一个重要的方法和手段。
The third developing country that is about to enter the 21st century is now under the impact of two huge waves of unprecedented magnitude: economic modernization and political democratization. These two tides may push developing countries into the 21st century at an extraordinary rate, but they may also be crushed and crushed. The key here depends on whether the two tides of wave are reaching a positive correlation between mutual promotion, or negative ones that hinder each other. And historical experience tells the people that deciding the orientation of these two relations is an important factor in determining whether the society is orderly and stable. Because only in an orderly and stable society can it be possible to transform the enormous material energy brought about by economic modernization into the political democratization of political energy. Only in an orderly and stable society can political democratization The political energy will in turn accelerate the economic modernization. A disorderly and chaotic society will consume the energy of these two waves in social unrest and may even turn into negative growth energy. Therefore, social stability is the key factor in the smooth progress of the modernization in developing countries. How to achieve this steady development? There are many ways and means, but studying the secrets of the developed western countries in maintaining long-term social stability after the war and drawing useful experiences and lessons learned is undoubtedly an important method and means.