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近年来,随着城市社会经济的发展、机动车拥有量的快速增长,停车难问题日益突出。停车需求预测是解决停车问题的重要前提。本文在对停车需求特性以及停车需求影响因素分析基础上,在分析对比传统停车需求预测方法 (相关分析预测、机动车OD预测以及交通量-停车需求预测)基础上,构建了基于交通特征的停车需求预测模型。该模型将路网流量与机动车保有量的增长率作为停车影响的主要因素,简化了传统的较为复杂的预测模型,方法简单,思路明确。最后结合南京市浦口区停车特征进行需求预测模型的应用,证明了所构建模型可靠实用。
In recent years, with the development of urban social economy, the rapid growth of automobile ownership and parking problems have become increasingly prominent. Parking demand forecasting is an important prerequisite for parking problems. Based on the analysis of the characteristics of parking demand and the influencing factors of parking demand, based on the analysis and comparison of the traditional parking demand forecasting methods (correlation analysis and forecasting, vehicle OD forecasting and traffic volume-parking demand forecasting), a parking feature based on traffic characteristics Demand forecasting model. The model uses the growth rate of road network traffic and vehicle ownership as the main factor of parking impact, and simplifies the traditional and more complex prediction model. The method is simple and has a clear idea. Finally, the application of demand forecasting model based on the parking characteristics of Pukou District in Nanjing City shows that the model is reliable and practical.