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源于美国次贷危机引致世界经济发展减速、国外需求减少、国内生产要素价格上涨及人民币升值等一系列国内外因素的集中影响,浙江省出口贸易呈现增速下滑态势。本文基于月度数据,通过向量自回归理论的脉冲响应函数,选择短期国内外经济冲击对浙江省出口贸易影响的主要因素建立冲击反应模型,实证分析了各种因素对浙江出口的冲击效果,并利用方差分解技术分析了其影响程度。结果显示:银行贷款、进口及贸易伙伴国收入对浙江出口的冲击效果非常显著。而解决问题的基本思路为加强国际经济合作共度金融危机,分散市场风险,加大对中小民营出口企业的财政支持及适度扩大进口。
Due to the concentration of a series of domestic and foreign factors, such as the slowdown of global economic development caused by the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, the reduction of foreign demand, the rise of the prices of domestic factors of production and the appreciation of the Renminbi, Zhejiang’s export trade showed a downward trend of growth. Based on the monthly data and the impulse response function of vector autoregression theory, this paper chooses the impact of short-term domestic and international economic impact on the export trade in Zhejiang Province to establish the impact response model and empirically analyzes the impact of various factors on the export of Zhejiang Province. Variance decomposition analysis of the impact of the degree. The results show that the impact of bank loans, imports and trading partners’ income on exports of Zhejiang is very significant. The basic idea of solving the problem is to strengthen international financial cooperation to cope with the financial crisis, diversify market risks, increase financial support for small and medium-sized private export enterprises and moderately increase imports.