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中长期电力负荷预测是电力规划中一项战略性工作。为明晰揭示电力需求与经济社会发展的密切关系,基于GDP因素分解提出以人口、城市化、经济发展及产业结构建立电力需求非线性预测模型。由于未来一年的电力需求需要特别关注,为消除回归预测可能产生的较大误差,引入GARCH模型进行误差校正。将该方法应用于北京市中长期电力需求预测,并建立相关自变量预测模型;将所得预测结果、弹性系数法预测结果及北京市规划值进行比较,初始预测值与校正后的预测值进行比较,验证该方法具有较高可信性。该方法可为其他相关研究提供借鉴。
Mid-to-long term power load forecasting is a strategic project in power planning. To clarify the close relationship between power demand and economic and social development, a nonlinear forecast model of electricity demand based on population factorization, urbanization, economic development and industrial structure was proposed based on the decomposition of GDP factor. As the power demand in the coming year needs special attention, a GARCH model is introduced to correct the error in order to eliminate the possible large error in the regression prediction. The method was applied to the medium and long-term electricity demand forecast in Beijing and the relevant independent variable forecasting model was established. The predicted results, the predicted results of the elastic coefficient method and the urban planning values in Beijing were compared, and the initial predictive value was compared with the corrected predictive value , Verify that the method has high credibility. This method can provide reference for other related research.