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青岛市是山东省经济发展和新型城镇化进程中的重要增长极,因此,研究其城市扩展与影响因素的过程有重要的意义。本研究从非城镇建设用地—城镇建设用地转换的视角,对青岛市城市用地扩展的时空格局与影响机制进行定量实证分析。采用城市扩展强度指数和城市扩展差异指数分析了青岛市辖区及胶州、即墨、平度、胶南和莱西五个县级市1990年至2008年城市用地扩展的时空格局差异。结合GIS和逻辑回归模型以县域单元数据为基础分析了用地扩展的影响机制。结果表明,高程、坡度、到道路的距离和到市中心的距离对城市扩展有显著负相关作用;而人口和GDP对城市扩展具有正相关作用且影响程度高,邻域因素也具有正相关作用。作用力在不同的县域影响范围有所不同。城市用地扩展的影响因素分析为土地利用管理和土地利用规划有较强的指导意义。
Qingdao is an important growth pole in the process of economic development and new urbanization in Shandong Province. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the process of urban expansion and its influencing factors. This study quantitatively empirically analyzes the spatiotemporal pattern and the impact mechanism of urban land expansion in Qingdao from the perspective of the conversion of land for non-urban construction-urban construction. The spatial and temporal patterns of urban land expansion in five prefecture-level cities of Qingdao, Jiaozhou, Jimo, Pingdu, Jiaonan and Lacey from 1990 to 2008 were analyzed using the urban expansion intensity index and the urban expansion difference index. Combined with GIS and logistic regression model, the paper analyzes the mechanism of impact of land expansion based on unit data of county. The results show that elevation, slope, distance to the road and distance to the city have a significant negative correlation with urban expansion; while population and GDP have a positive correlation with urban expansion and have a high degree of influence, and neighborhood factors also have a positive correlation . The impact of force varies in different counties. The analysis of influencing factors of urban land expansion has strong guiding significance for land use management and land use planning.