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时间延迟的不确定性是许多跨期选择问题的内在特征,然而已有关于“时不定”风险决策的研究都停留在实证发现阶段,需要进一步的理论研究。通过科学的问题描述和分析,指出传统的贴现效用模型不能很好地解释“时不定”条件下的选择行为。然后面向“时不定”跨期回报,运用风险-价值权衡思想,通过一个独立性条件分离了决策者的时间偏好和“时不定”风险偏好,从而建立了“时不定”风险-价值模型。该模型能够解释“时不定”跨期选择实验的观察结果,它表明“时不定”风险偏好是跨期选择行为的重要影响因素,最后讨论了模型的现实经济涵义。
The uncertainty of time delay is the inherent characteristic of many intertemporal choice problems. However, the research on risk decision making in the past has remained in the stage of empirical discovery and needs further theoretical research. Through the scientific description and analysis of the problem, it is pointed out that the traditional discount utility model can not explain the choice behavior under the condition of “indefinite”. Then we set up an indefinite “intertemporal return ” by applying the risk - value tradeoff mentality and separating the decision maker ’s time preference and “indefinite ” risk appetite by using the risk - value tradeoff mentality. Risk - value model. The model can interpret the results of the “indefinite” intertemporal choice experiment, which shows that “risk is uncertain ” risk preference is an important factor in intertemporal choice behavior, and finally discusses the real economic implications of the model.