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利用详实的气象资料,分析了徐州市1950～2008年半个多世纪以来主要气象要素的变化。结果表明,夏季降雨量增多23%,冬春季温度分别升高了1.9和2.5℃,说明徐州地区的气候发生了明显的变化。夏季降雨量增多,导致夏季涝渍灾害加剧,秋熟旱作严重减产;冬季变暖,导致小麦苗期旺长,抗冻能力降低,春季易脱肥早衰,从而影响高产稳产。这些都直接威胁到粮食安全和农民增收。通过小麦适播期的变化和水稻、玉米等旱作产量的对比分析,论证了调整作物品种、播期和布局的必要性,据此给出了应对气候变化的措施,并分析了该措施可带来的巨大经济效益。
Using detailed meteorological data, this paper analyzes the changes of major meteorological elements in Xuzhou City from 1950 to 2008 for more than half a century. The results showed that the rainfall in summer increased by 23% and the temperature in winter and spring increased by 1.9 and 2.5 ℃, respectively, indicating a clear change of climate in Xuzhou. Increasing rainfall in summer led to increased waterlogging disaster in summer and serious drought and drought reduction in autumn. Winter warming led to the flourishing wheat seedling stage with reduced frost resistance ability and easy application of fertilizer and premature aging in spring, thus affecting high and stable yield. These are a direct threat to food security and peasant incomes. Through the comparison of the sowing date of sowing wheat and the yield of dry crops such as rice and corn, the necessity of adjusting crop varieties, sowing dates and layouts was demonstrated. The measures to deal with climate change were given, and the measures were analyzed Bring huge economic benefits.