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提出了实时预报调度下,综合考虑洪峰预报误差、峰现时间预报误差和下泄能力误差综合影响下的风险约束法,和实时预蓄预泄法相结合的双约束法,得出根据风险约束法推导出的防洪限制水位,作为防洪限制水位的下限值确定的主要依据之一,并将此水位作为实时预蓄水预泄水法有效预泄期末的水位,来确定防洪限制水位的上限值.并运用到罗湾水利枢纽的根据历史水文资料随机虚拟的实时预报校核洪水和1983年的实时预报洪水.结果表明,从防洪风险的角度来分析,完全可以将防洪限制水位的上限值提高到369.82m,水库防洪都是安全的.
Under the real-time forecasting and scheduling, the double constraint method combining the risk constraint method under the comprehensive influence of peak forecast error, peak time forecast error and discharge capacity error, and the combination of real-time pre-deposit and pre-vent method is deduced. Flood control limit of water level as one of the main basis for determining the lower limit of flood control limit and use this level as the effective pre-discharge pre-discharge water level at the end of the stage to determine the upper limit of flood control limit water level .And using real-time forecast random flood of historical hydrological data to Luo Bay water conservancy project to verify flood and real-time forecast flood in 1983. The results show that from the perspective of flood risk analysis, flood control limit the upper limit of the water level Increase to 369.82m, reservoir flood control is safe.