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本文基于我国各省1992—2012年的户籍人口迁移和人均财政负担数据,利用面板VAR模型分析了人口迁移、人均财政负担间可能存在的相互影响关系和人均财政负担对人口迁入和迁出所造成的不同影响。结果显示,人口迁入与人均财政负担间只存在人均财政负担影响人口迁入量这一单向因果关系;人口迁出与人均财政负担间存在双向因果关系,但人口迁出量对人均财政负担的影响需经过较长的一段时间才能显现。
Based on the household registration migration and per capita financial burden of each province in China from 1992 to 2012, this paper analyzes the possible interaction between population migration, per capita financial burden and the per capita financial burden on the migration and emigration of the population by using panel VAR model Different effects. The results show that there is only one-way causal relationship between the financial burden per capita and the per capita financial burden on the relocation of the population. There is a two-way causal relationship between the relocation of the population and the per capita financial burden, but the per capita financial burden on the relocation of the population The effect takes a long time to appear.