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通过土石坝现场调研与事故树分析相结合,对造成汛期土石坝洪水漫顶事故的因素进行识别和分析。以水库土石坝洪水漫顶作为顶上事件,对可能引发顶上事件的15个基本事件构建事故树,利用最小割集、最小径集及结构重要度,对其进行事故风险程度分析。结果显示,致使土石坝洪水漫顶的最小割集合有48个,表明土石坝洪水漫顶易发生;防止事故发生的最小径集合有3个;坝体存在隐患是控制土石坝洪水漫顶事故发生的关键。
Through the combination of site investigation and accident tree analysis of earth dam, the factors that caused the flood control of earth-rock dam flood were identified and analyzed. Based on the flood top of the dam, the accident tree is constructed for 15 basic events that may trigger overhead events, and the degree of accident risk is analyzed using minimum cut set, minimum path set and structure importance. The results show that there are 48 minimum cut sets that cause floods of earth-rock dam floods, which indicates that flood-embankment of earth-rock dam is prone to occur. There are 3 minimum path sets to prevent accidents. The hidden danger of the dam body is to control the occurrence of flooding accidents of earth- key.